Shreveport, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

885
FXUS64 KSHV 250540
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

As of 10 PM CDT, the last portion of a mesoscale complex of
thunderstorms continues to weaken across north-central Louisiana.
Temperatures currently remain in the lower 70s and minimums will
not fall much further as a result (mid-to-upper 60s). With
weather and observed trends actively evolving, forecast grid
adjustments were necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts broad longwave
troughing over the far eastern Pacific and through the middle
CONUS, with weak, low-amplitude ridging over the Eastern US.
Meanwhile in the lower levels, latest WPC surface analysis shows a
slow-moving, quasi-stationary boundary across the Central Plains
and through the Midwest into the Great Lakes, while weak high
pressure encompasses the Northeast and Northern Great Plains.

Across the ArkLaTex, a vort max/shortwave perturbation within the
broad scale longwave trough just mentioned is moving across E TX
this afternoon and will continue its eastward trajectory through
the evening hours. While it will gradually weaken with eastward
movement over time, it will still supply some PVA across the
region and, working in tandem with dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s and MLCAPE values averaging around 1500 J/kg, will help
sustain a thunderstorm complex that is currently lingering near
the western border of the CWA as well as help generate single
cell convection ahead of the complex. Given ample convective
ingredients in place, cannot rule out a few strong to severe
storms through mid-evening, especially within the thunderstorm
complex to the west. Lack of sufficient deep layer shear will
inhibit updraft organization and this combined with weakening PVA
and eventual decrease in daytime heating will limit the severe
threat and overall strong storm coverage.

As the shortwave trough weakens/moves east overnight, the mid and
upper level flow will transition as such to support weak upper
level ridging. This is expected to suppress thunderstorm/rain
coverage into Friday morning, although cannot completely rule out
some residual and/or nuisance lingering convection from the
weakening storm complex over the E/NE section of the CWA. Despite
increasing mid/upper level ridge influence across the region
through Friday afternoon and evening, ample moisture and
sufficient instability could very well overcome weak synoptic
scale subsidence and make for isolated thunderstorm development.
Opted to trend probs of precip well below the latest NBM guidance
given the presence of the ridge.

Generally dry conditions will then carry through Friday evening
and Friday night, lending to a quiet end to the short term
forecast period.

Kovacik

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

An active long term forecast period is in store for the Four State
Region. To begin on Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature
mid and upper level ridging over the Great Plains and Deep South,
aided in part by a deepening trough over the California Coast.
Nearer the surface, a frontal boundary will be pushing south
across the Central and Southern Great Plains and through the TN
and OH valleys. Saturday is expected to start off dry for most
locations, however, convection will become focused in the vicinity
of the frontal boundary by the afternoon, boosted by diurnal
heating and subtle perturbations ejecting eastward from the
deepening West Coast trough/low. Chances for convection will
remain highest near and north of the I-30 corridor. The boundary
will either stall or move slightly north Saturday night into
Sunday, easing convective coverage.

Where the boundary roams on Sunday will have noticeable forecast
implications. Current ensemble solutions/WPC cluster analysis
show decent agreement in the closed low portion of the upper
trough ejecting somewhere near the Central Rockies. If this trend
continues, sfc cyclogenesis should be anticipated in the
Southern/Central Plains vicinity, lifting the frontal boundary
near the Four State Region back to the north as a warm front. This
would keep the area largely dry, however, isolated single cell,
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon and evening seems
plausible given the persistent warm and moist airmass across the
region.

Monday appears similar to Sunday, however, the longwave western US
will be attempting to deepen more, despite the progression of its
initial closed low to the NE. This should help in diabatically
induced mid and upper level ridging across the Four State Region.
While some increase in large scale subsidence has a better chance
at suppressing convection Monday, the persistent muggy airmass
could still spark some late day convection. Will opt for a dry
forecast for now given this being Day 5 and that overall
convective coverage appears minimal at best.

Things then take an interesting turn for the rest of the forecast
period. The general pattern points to the local area being under
the influence of deep SW flow aloft with an approaching frontal
boundary in the low levels. This points towards rain and
thunderstorm chances increasing in earnest by Tuesday or
Wednesday. The big question will be whether this pattern lends
itself to being the next widespread severe weather event. WPC
cluster analysis is in general agreement with at least a somewhat
organized trough heading towards the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains
near or just outside of the end of the forecast period, which is
also further supported in the deterministic guidance and ensemble
means. This would support a severe weather threat if this general
trend continues, which seems likely. The bigger question is
likely to lie in the realm of timing, with patterns like this
often slower to progress than expected.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A weak upper-level ridge building across the region from the west
will allow for mainly dry conditions across much of the region on
Friday. However, could see VCTS conditions across mainly MLU/ELD
during the afternoon in the wake of a departing trough. Convection
chances still too low to mention in TAFs. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR
ceilings possible across most sites overnight with a few
locations across E Texas possibly experiencing IFR/LIFR vsbys
also. Light and variable winds to become SW at 5 to 8 knots on
Friday, decreasing to light and variable after 26/00Z. /05/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  87  68 /  30  10  30  20
MLU  84  67  86  66 /  40  10  30  20
DEQ  82  63  81  63 /  30  20  60  30
TXK  85  67  84  66 /  30  10  50  20
ELD  83  63  84  63 /  30  10  50  30
TYR  85  66  86  66 /  30  10  20  10
GGG  84  65  86  64 /  30  10  20  10
LFK  87  66  87  66 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05